![]() ![]() ![]() When comparable data are available, this measure combines the change in Republican support and the change in Democratic support from the previous election. Population scaling is representative of the number of voters in each category. Independent or third-party candidates are not shown. An indictment from the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election explains how 12 Russian intelligence officers hacked the Democratic National Committee. Race and sex were determined by interviewers in surveys before 1984. In 2012, 20, the exit poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky in 19 by Voter News Services in 1992 by Voter Research and Surveys and in earlier years by The New York Times and CBS News.ĭirect comparisons from year to year should factor in differences in how questions were asked. The voter survey is based on questionnaires completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day including 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters. As dawn broke on the East Coast, he only led by a couple hundred thousand votes, and votes from West Coast states still uncounted held open the prospect that Clinton might actually win the popular vote - surely a painful dose of déjà vu for Democrats after the 2000 election.Data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, The Associated Press, CBSNews, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Trump’s margin in the popular vote was far smaller than his Electoral College romp. But neither that nor Clinton’s wide advantage with women was enough to offset polling models that The New York Times estimates undercounted older working-class voters in the electorate by about 10 million. Vast areas of the country that had previously voted for Obama, from northeast Pennsylvania to eastern Ohio, from rural Iowa to Wisconsin and Michigan, swung solidly into Donald Trump’s column. The electoral coalition was easy to imagine.īut it proved imaginary precisely because those working-class whites-who for decades have been slowly but surely drifting away from a coastal Democratic Party elite they view as economically and culturally out of touch with their needs-found his populist, protectionist rhetoric spoke directly to them. If exit polls are to be believed, Clinton lost because her campaign made a fatal miscalculation: That the American electorate was growing so much more diverse, so fast, that it couldn’t possibly fare worse with working-class white voters than the country’s first black president had in 2012. Only hours before Trump officially vanquished Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, one prominent Republican commentator was writing a political obituary for his party’s nominee.Įstablishment consensus, meet thy antidote: President-elect Donald Trump. So no one, Republican, Democrat or any other stripe, saw a tsunami of this size coming. He had broken so many political norms-not releasing his tax returns, threatening to jail his opponent, lying at a rate never seen in modern politics. But he had insulted so many people-blacks, Hispanics, women, the disabled, his own party’s leaders, just to name a few. Every previous prediction of Trump’s political demise had proven premature. 19 While the 2016 presidential election, with its unprecedented level of alarming rhetoric, may feel less straightforward or easy to bring into your classroom than. Why couldn’t the same thing happen in America? That thought lingered in the back of many a mind as Election Day neared and polls tightened. The British voted to leave the European Union when so few expected them to do so. ![]() ![]() 8, 2016, Americans elected Donald Trump the 45th President of the United States. Even the betting markets said it wouldn’t happen this way.īut on Tuesday, Nov. The forecasts said it wouldn’t happen this way. The polls said it wouldn’t happen this way. ![]()
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